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In Results in physics

This paper deals with modeling and simulation of the novel coronavirus in which the infectious individuals are divided into three subgroups representing three forms of infection. The rigorous analysis of the mathematical model is provided. We provide also a rigorous derivation of the basic reproduction number R 0 . For R 0 < 1 , we prove that the Disease Free Equilibium (DFE) is Globally Asymptotically Stable (GAS), thus COVID-19 extincts; whereas for R 0 > 1 , we found the co-existing phenomena under some assumptions and parametric values. Elasticity indices for R 0 with respect to different parameters are calculated with baseline parameter values estimated. We also prove that a transcritical bifurcation occurs at R 0 = 1 . Taking into account the control strategies like screening, treatment and isolation (social distancing measures), we present the optimal control problem of minimizing the cost due to the application of these measures. By reducing the values of some parameters, such as death rates (representing a management effort for all categories of people) and recovered rates (representing the action of reduction in transmission, improved screening, treatment for individuals diagnosed positive to COVID-19 and the implementation of barrier measures limiting contamination for undiagnosed individuals), it appears that after 140 - 170 days, the peak of the pandemic is reached and shows that by continuing with this strategy, COVID-19 could be eliminated in the population.

Ndondo A M, Kasereka S K, Bisuta S F, Kyamakya K, Doungmo E F G, Ngoie R-B M

2021-Mar-27

COVID-19, DRC, Differential equation, Mathematical model, Optimal control, Simulation