In Health care management science
The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted an international effort to develop and repurpose medications and procedures to effectively combat the disease. Several groups have focused on the potential treatment utility of angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs) for hypertensive COVID-19 patients, with inconclusive evidence thus far. We couple electronic medical record (EMR) and registry data of 3,643 patients from Spain, Italy, Germany, Ecuador, and the US with a machine learning framework to personalize the prescription of ACEIs and ARBs to hypertensive COVID-19 patients. Our approach leverages clinical and demographic information to identify hospitalized individuals whose probability of mortality or morbidity can decrease by prescribing this class of drugs. In particular, the algorithm proposes increasing ACEI/ARBs prescriptions for patients with cardiovascular disease and decreasing prescriptions for those with low oxygen saturation at admission. We show that personalized recommendations can improve patient outcomes by 1.0% compared to the standard of care when applied to external populations. We develop an interactive interface for our algorithm, providing physicians with an actionable tool to easily assess treatment alternatives and inform clinical decisions. This work offers the first personalized recommendation system to accurately evaluate the efficacy and risks of prescribing ACEIs and ARBs to hypertensive COVID-19 patients.
Bertsimas Dimitris, Borenstein Alison, Mingardi Luca, Nohadani Omid, Orfanoudaki Agni, Stellato Bartolomeo, Wiberg Holly, Sarin Pankaj, Varelmann Dirk J, Estrada Vicente, Macaya Carlos, Gil Iván J Núñez
ACE inhibitors, ARBs, COVID-19, Machine learning, Prescriptive analytics