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Radiology Radiology

Modeling the progression of COVID-19 deaths using Kalman Filter and AutoML.

In Soft computing

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a destructive effect on the health and well-being of the global population. A vital step in the battle against it is the successful screening of infected patients, together with one of the effective screening methods being radiology examination using chest radiography. Recognition of epidemic growth patterns across temporal and social factors can improve our capability to create epidemic transmission designs, including the critical job of predicting the estimated intensity of the outbreak morbidity or mortality impact at the end. The study's primary motivation is to be able to estimate with a certain level of accuracy the number of deaths due to COVID-19, managing to model the progression of the pandemic. Predicting the number of possible deaths from COVID-19 can provide governments and decision-makers with indicators for purchasing respirators and pandemic prevention policies. Thus, this work presents itself as an essential contribution to combating the pandemic. Kalman Filter is a widely used method for tracking and navigation and filtering and time series. Designing and tuning machine learning methods are a labor- and time-intensive task that requires extensive experience. The field of automated machine learning Auto Machine Learning relies on automating this task. Auto Machine Learning tools enable novice users to create useful machine learning units, while experts can use them to free up valuable time for other tasks. This paper presents an objective method of forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak using Kalman Filter and Auto Machine Learning. We use a COVID-19 dataset of Ceará, one of the 27 federative units in Brazil. Ceará has more than 235,222 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 8850 deaths due to the disease. The TPOT automobile model showed the best result with a 0.99 of R 2 score.

Han Tao, Gois Francisco Nauber Bernardo, Oliveira Rams├ęs, Prates Luan Rocha, Porto Magda Moura de Almeida


AutoML, COVID-19, Forecast, Kalman Filter

General General

COVIDNet-CT: A Tailored Deep Convolutional Neural Network Design for Detection of COVID-19 Cases From Chest CT Images.

In Frontiers in medicine

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to have a tremendous impact on patients and healthcare systems around the world. In the fight against this novel disease, there is a pressing need for rapid and effective screening tools to identify patients infected with COVID-19, and to this end CT imaging has been proposed as one of the key screening methods which may be used as a complement to RT-PCR testing, particularly in situations where patients undergo routine CT scans for non-COVID-19 related reasons, patients have worsening respiratory status or developing complications that require expedited care, or patients are suspected to be COVID-19-positive but have negative RT-PCR test results. Early studies on CT-based screening have reported abnormalities in chest CT images which are characteristic of COVID-19 infection, but these abnormalities may be difficult to distinguish from abnormalities caused by other lung conditions. Motivated by this, in this study we introduce COVIDNet-CT, a deep convolutional neural network architecture that is tailored for detection of COVID-19 cases from chest CT images via a machine-driven design exploration approach. Additionally, we introduce COVIDx-CT, a benchmark CT image dataset derived from CT imaging data collected by the China National Center for Bioinformation comprising 104,009 images across 1,489 patient cases. Furthermore, in the interest of reliability and transparency, we leverage an explainability-driven performance validation strategy to investigate the decision-making behavior of COVIDNet-CT, and in doing so ensure that COVIDNet-CT makes predictions based on relevant indicators in CT images. Both COVIDNet-CT and the COVIDx-CT dataset are available to the general public in an open-source and open access manner as part of the COVID-Net initiative. While COVIDNet-CT is not yet a production-ready screening solution, we hope that releasing the model and dataset will encourage researchers, clinicians, and citizen data scientists alike to leverage and build upon them.

Gunraj Hayden, Wang Linda, Wong Alexander


COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, computed tomography, deep learning, image classification, pneumonia

General General

The Use of Accurate Pore Pressure Monitoring for Risk Reduction in Tailings Dams.

In Mine water and the environment

Simply monitoring movement of the tailings dam wall does not address the cause of tailings dam failures and will therefore never be an effective method to reduce or prevent failures. Monitoring the causes of failures is more effective. The main cause of tailings dam failure is slope instability, which is caused by too much water in the wrong place. Accurate pore pressure monitoring of the pressure (weight) of water in the tailings storage facility (TSF) slopes and plotting of flow lines beneath and upstream of the TSF can guide and enable early intervention to prevent or delay failure. Remote monitoring linked to artificial intelligence and robotics to turn on pumps and open drains to address and remove the cause of failure can help reduce risk. Installation of multiple point piezometers in an accurate pattern allows the plotting of equipotentials and flow lines in three dimensions. Each TSF is unique and requires its own monitoring design, which should be tailored to match the age, structure, and specific causes of risk. Once understood, the monitoring system can be coupled to a reporting system to significantly reduce the risk of failure at both legacy and active sites.

Morton Kym Lesley


Artificial intelligence, Equipotentials, Piezometers, Robotics, Satellite tracking, TSF

General General

Predicting the European stock market during COVID-19: A machine learning approach.

In MethodsX

This research attempts to explore the total of 21 potential internal and external shocks to the European market during the Covid-19 Crisis. Using the time series of 1 Jan 2020 to 26 June 2020, I employ a machine learning technique, i.e. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to examine the research question for its benefits over the traditional regression methods. This further allows me to cater to the issue of limited data during the crisis and at the same time, allows both variable selection and regularization in the analysis. Additionally, LASSO is not susceptible to and sensitive to outliers and multi-collinearity. The European market is mostly affected by indices belonging to Singapore, Switzerland, Spain, France, Germany, and the S&P500 index. There is a significant difference in the predictors before and after the pandemic announcement by WHO. Before the Pandemic period announcement by WHO, Europe was hit by the gold market, EUR/USD exchange rate, Dow Jones index, Switzerland, Spain, France, Italy, Germany, and Turkey and after the announcement by WHO, only France and Germany were selected by the lasso approach. It is found that Germany and France are the most predictors in the European market.•A LASSO approach is used to predict the European stock market index during COVID-19•European market is mostly affected by the indices belonging to Singapore, Switzerland, Spain, France, Germany, and the S&P500 index.•There is a significant difference in the predictors before and after the pandemic announcement by WHO.

Khattak Mudeer Ahmed, Ali Mohsin, Rizvi Syed Aun R


Coronavirus, Europe, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Stock markets

Public Health Public Health

Development and external evaluation of predictions models for mortality of COVID-19 patients using machine learning method.

In Neural computing & applications

** : To predict the mortality of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We collected clinical data of COVID-19 patients between January 18 and March 29 2020 in Wuhan, China . Gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), logistic regression (LR) model, and simplified LR were built to predict the mortality of COVID-19. We also evaluated different models by computing area under curve (AUC), accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) under fivefold cross-validation. A total of 2924 patients were included in our evaluation, with 257 (8.8%) died and 2667 (91.2%) survived during hospitalization. Upon admission, there were 21 (0.7%) mild cases, 2051 (70.1%) moderate case, 779 (26.6%) severe cases, and 73 (2.5%) critically severe cases. The GBDT model exhibited the highest fivefold AUC, which was 0.941, followed by LR (0.928) and LR-5 (0.913). The diagnostic accuracies of GBDT, LR, and LR-5 were 0.889, 0.868, and 0.887, respectively. In particular, the GBDT model demonstrated the highest sensitivity (0.899) and specificity (0.889). The NPV of all three models exceeded 97%, while their PPV values were relatively low, resulting in 0.381 for LR, 0.402 for LR-5, and 0.432 for GBDT. Regarding severe and critically severe cases, the GBDT model also performed the best with a fivefold AUC of 0.918. In the external validation test of the LR-5 model using 72 cases of COVID-19 from Brunei, leukomonocyte (%) turned to show the highest fivefold AUC (0.917), followed by urea (0.867), age (0.826), and SPO2 (0.704). The findings confirm that the mortality prediction performance of the GBDT is better than the LR models in confirmed cases of COVID-19. The performance comparison seems independent of disease severity.

Supplementary Information : The online version contains supplementary material available at(10.1007/s00521-020-05592-1).

Li Simin, Lin Yulan, Zhu Tong, Fan Mengjie, Xu Shicheng, Qiu Weihao, Chen Can, Li Linfeng, Wang Yao, Yan Jun, Wong Justin, Naing Lin, Xu Shabei


COVID-19, China, Machine learning, Mortality, Prediction

General General

SSDMNV2: A real time DNN-based face mask detection system using single shot multibox detector and MobileNetV2.

In Sustainable cities and society

Face mask detection had seen significant progress in the domains of Image processing and Computer vision, since the rise of the Covid-19 pandemic. Many face detection models have been created using several algorithms and techniques. The proposed approach in this paper uses deep learning, TensorFlow, Keras, and OpenCV to detect face masks. This model can be used for safety purposes since it is very resource efficient to deploy. The SSDMNV2 approach uses Single Shot Multibox Detector as a face detector and MobilenetV2 architecture as a framework for the classifier, which is very lightweight and can even be used in embedded devices (like NVIDIA Jetson Nano, Raspberry pi) to perform real-time mask detection. The technique deployed in this paper gives us an accuracy score of 0.9264 and an F1 score of 0.93. The dataset provided in this paper, was collected from various sources, can be used by other researchers for further advanced models such as those of face recognition, facial landmarks, and facial part detection process.

Nagrath Preeti, Jain Rachna, Madan Agam, Arora Rohan, Kataria Piyush, Hemanth Jude


Bottleneck, Convolutional Neural Network, Data augmentation, Fine tuning, MobileNetV2