In Journal of thoracic imaging
PURPOSE : To assess automated coronary artery calcium (CAC) and quantitative emphysema (percentage of low attenuation areas [%LAA]) for predicting mortality and lung cancer (LC) incidence in LC screening. To explore correlations between %LAA, CAC, and forced expiratory value in 1 second (FEV1) and the discriminative ability of %LAA for airflow obstruction.
MATERIALS AND METHODS : Baseline low-dose computed tomography scans of the BioMILD trial were analyzed using an artificial intelligence software. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to estimate the predictive value of %LAA and CAC. Harrell C-statistic and time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) were reported for 3 nested models (Modelsurvey: age, sex, pack-years; Modelsurvey-LDCT: Modelsurvey plus %LAA plus CAC; Modelfinal: Modelsurvey-LDCT plus selected confounders). The correlations between %LAA, CAC, and FEV1 and the discriminative ability of %LAA for airflow obstruction were tested using the Pearson correlation coefficient and AUC-receiver operating characteristic curve, respectively.
RESULTS : A total of 4098 volunteers were enrolled. %LAA and CAC independently predicted 6-year all-cause (Modelfinal hazard ratio [HR], 1.14 per %LAA interquartile range [IQR] increase [95% CI, 1.05-1.23], 2.13 for CAC ≥400 [95% CI, 1.36-3.28]), noncancer (Modelfinal HR, 1.25 per %LAA IQR increase [95% CI, 1.11-1.37], 3.22 for CAC ≥400 [95%CI, 1.62-6.39]), and cardiovascular (Modelfinal HR, 1.25 per %LAA IQR increase [95% CI, 1.00-1.46], 4.66 for CAC ≥400, [95% CI, 1.80-12.58]) mortality, with an increase in concordance probability in Modelsurvey-LDCT compared with Modelsurvey (P<0.05). No significant association with LC incidence was found after adjustments. Both biomarkers negatively correlated with FEV1 (P<0.01). %LAA identified airflow obstruction with a moderate discriminative ability (AUC, 0.738).
CONCLUSIONS : Automated CAC and %LAA added prognostic information to age, sex, and pack-years for predicting mortality but not LC incidence in an LC screening setting. Both biomarkers negatively correlated with FEV1, with %LAA enabling the identification of airflow obstruction with moderate discriminative ability.
Balbi Maurizio, Sabia Federica, Ledda Roberta E, Milanese Gianluca, Ruggirello Margherita, Silva Mario, Marchianò Alfonso V, Sverzellati Nicola, Pastorino Ugo
2023-Jan-20
