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In Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil

OBJECTIVE : To report the university extension research result entitled 'The COVID-PA Bulletin', which presented forecasts on the behavior of the pandemic in the state of Pará, Brazil.

METHODS : The artificial intelligence technique also known as 'artificial neural networks' was used to generate 13 bulletins with short-term forecasts based on historical data from the State Department of Public Health information system.

RESULTS : After eight months of predictions, the technique generated reliable results, with an average accuracy of 97% (observed for147 days) for confirmed cases, 96% (observed for 161 days) for deaths and 86% (observed for 72 days) for Intensive Care Unit bed occupancy.

CONCLUSION : These bulletins have become a useful decision-making tool for public managers, assisting in the reallocation of hospital resources and optimization of COVID-19 control strategies in various regions of the state of Pará.

Souza Gilberto Nerino de, Braga Marcus de Barros, Rodrigues Luana Lorena Silva, Fernandes Rafael da Silva, Ramos Rommel Thiago Jucá, Carneiro Adriana Ribeiro, Brito Silvana Rossy de, Dolácio Cícero Jorge Fonseca, Tavares Ivaldo da Silva, Noronha Fernando Napoleão, Pinheiro Raphael Rodrigues, Diniz Hugo Alex Carneiro, Botelho Marcel do Nascimento, Vallinoto Antonio Carlos Rosário, Rocha Jonas Elias Castro da

2021