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In medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

One of the most critical challenges in managing complex diseases like COVID-19 is to establish an intelligent triage system that can optimize the clinical decision-making at the time of a global pandemic. The clinical presentation and patients’ characteristics are usually utilized to identify those patients who need more critical care. However, the clinical evidence shows an unmet need to determine more accurate and optimal clinical biomarkers to triage patients under a condition like the COVID-19 crisis. Here we have presented a machine learning approach to find a group of clinical indicators from the blood tests of a set of COVID-19 patients that are predictive of poor prognosis and morbidity. Our approach consists of two interconnected schemes: Feature Selection and Prognosis Classification. The former is based on different Matrix Factorization (MF)-based methods, and the latter is performed using Random Forest algorithm. Our model reveals that Arterial Blood Gas (ABG) O 2 Saturation and C-Reactive Protein (CRP) are the most important clinical biomarkers determining the poor prognosis in these patients. Our approach paves the path of building quantitative and optimized clinical management systems for COVID-19 and similar diseases.

Saberi-Movahed Farshad, Mohammadifard Mahyar, Mehrpooya Adel, Rezaei-Ravari Mohammad, Berahmand Kamal, Rostami Mehrdad, Karami Saeed, Najafzadeh Mohammad, Hajinezhad Davood, Jamshidi Mina, Abedi Farshid, Mohammadifard Mahtab, Farbod Elnaz, Safavi Farinaz, Dorvash Mohammadreza, Vahedi Shahrzad, Eftekhari Mahdi, Saberi-Movahed Farid, Tavassoly Iman