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In Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases

To develop a modified predictive model for severe COVID-19 in people infected with Sars-Cov-2. We developed the predictive model for severe patients of COVID-19 based on the clinical date from the Tumor Center of Union Hospital affiliated with Tongji Medical College, China. A total of 151 cases from Jan. 26 to Mar. 20, 2020, were included. Then we followed 5 steps to predict and evaluate the model: data preprocessing, data splitting, feature selection, model building, prevention of overfitting, and Evaluation, and combined with artificial neural network algorithms. We processed the results in the 5 steps. In feature selection, ALB showed a strong negative correlation (r = 0.771, P < 0.001) whereas GLB (r = 0.661, P < 0.001) and BUN (r = 0.714, P < 0.001) showed a strong positive correlation with severity of COVID-19. TensorFlow was subsequently applied to develop a neural network model. The model achieved good prediction performance, with an area under the curve value of 0.953(0.889-0.982). Our results showed its outstanding performance in prediction. GLB and BUN may be two risk factors for severe COVID-19. Our findings could be of great benefit in the future treatment of patients with COVID-19 and will help to improve the quality of care in the long term. This model has great significance to rationalize early clinical interventions and improve the cure rate.

Kang Jianhong, Chen Ting, Luo Honghe, Li Lijian, Yang Mia Jiming

2021-Jan-27

Machine learning, Predictive model, Severe COVID-19