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In Surgical neurology international ; h5-index 27.0

Background : Reliable prediction models of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) outcomes are needed for decision-making of the treatment. SAFIRE score using only four variables is a good prediction scoring system. However, making such prediction models needs a large number of samples and time-consuming statistical analysis. Deep learning (DL), one of the artificial intelligence, is attractive, but there were no reports on prediction models for SAH outcomes using DL. We herein made a prediction model using DL software, Prediction One (Sony Network Communications Inc., Tokyo, Japan) and compared it to SAFIRE score.

Methods : We used 153 consecutive aneurysmal SAH patients data in our hospital between 2012 and 2019. Modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0-3 at 6 months was defined as a favorable outcome. We randomly divided them into 102 patients training dataset and 51 patients external validation dataset. Prediction one made the prediction model using the training dataset with internal cross-validation. We used both the created model and SAFIRE score to predict the outcomes using the external validation set. The areas under the curve (AUCs) were compared.

Results : The model made by Prediction One using 28 variables had AUC of 0.848, and its AUC for the validation dataset was 0.953 (95%CI 0.900-1.000). AUCs calculated using SAFIRE score were 0.875 for the training dataset and 0.960 for the validation dataset, respectively.

Conclusion : We easily and quickly made prediction models using Prediction One, even with a small single-center dataset. The accuracy of the model was not so inferior to those of previous statistically calculated prediction models.

Katsuki Masahito, Kakizawa Yukinari, Nishikawa Akihiro, Yamamoto Yasunaga, Uchiyama Toshiya

2020

Artificial intelligence, Deep learning, Machine learning, Prediction model, Subarachnoid hemorrhage