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In Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)

An accurate and timely forecast of extreme events can mitigate negative impacts and enhance preparedness. Real-time forecasting of extreme flood events with longer lead times is difficult for regions with sparse rain gauges, and in such situations, satellite precipitation could be a better alternative. Machine learning methods have shown promising results for flood forecasting with minimum variables indicating the underlying nonlinear complex hydrologic system. Integration of machine learning methods in extreme event forecasting motivates us to develop reliable flood forecasting models that are simple, accurate, and applicable in data scare regions. In this study, we develop a forecasting method using the satellite precipitation product and wavelet-based machine learning models. We test the proposed approach in the flood-prone Vamsadhara river basin, India. The validation results show that the proposed method is promising and has the potential to forecast extreme flood events with longer lead times in comparison with the other benchmark models.

Yeditha Pavan Kumar, Kasi Venkatesh, Rathinasamy Maheswaran, Agarwal Ankit