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In Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research

PURPOSE : Using standard-of-care CT images obtained from patients with a diagnosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), we defined radiomics signatures predicting the sensitivity of tumors to nivolumab, docetaxel, and gefitinib.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN : Data were collected prospectively and analyzed retrospectively across multicenter clinical trials [nivolumab, n = 92, CheckMate017 (NCT01642004), CheckMate063 (NCT01721759); docetaxel, n = 50, CheckMate017; gefitinib, n = 46, (NCT00588445)]. Patients were randomized to training or validation cohorts using either a 4:1 ratio (nivolumab: 72T:20V) or a 2:1 ratio (docetaxel: 32T:18V; gefitinib: 31T:15V) to ensure an adequate sample size in the validation set. Radiomics signatures were derived from quantitative analysis of early tumor changes from baseline to first on-treatment assessment. For each patient, 1,160 radiomics features were extracted from the largest measurable lung lesion. Tumors were classified as treatment sensitive or insensitive; reference standard was median progression-free survival (NCT01642004, NCT01721759) or surgery (NCT00588445). Machine learning was implemented to select up to four features to develop a radiomics signature in the training datasets and applied to each patient in the validation datasets to classify treatment sensitivity.

RESULTS : The radiomics signatures predicted treatment sensitivity in the validation dataset of each study group with AUC (95 confidence interval): nivolumab, 0.77 (0.55-1.00); docetaxel, 0.67 (0.37-0.96); and gefitinib, 0.82 (0.53-0.97). Using serial radiographic measurements, the magnitude of exponential increase in signature features deciphering tumor volume, invasion of tumor boundaries, or tumor spatial heterogeneity was associated with shorter overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS : Radiomics signatures predicted tumor sensitivity to treatment in patients with NSCLC, offering an approach that could enhance clinical decision-making to continue systemic therapies and forecast overall survival.

Dercle Laurent, Fronheiser Matthew, Lu Lin, Du Shuyan, Hayes Wendy, Leung David K, Roy Amit, Wilkerson Julia, Guo Pingzhen, Fojo Antonio T, Schwartz Lawrence H, Zhao Binsheng